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lyndon@pobox.com (Lyndon
05-26-1999, 04:52 AM
Hi Craig

If any library near you has Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones ATLAS OF
WORLD POPULATION HISTORY you probably would find it a useful read. I
believe it is out of print.

However the PENGUIN ATLAS OF ANCIENT, MEDIEVAL, MODERN HISTORY (three
different paperbacks) is still showing up, and is a good read.
One of the nifty things about this is that essentially all the
maps in each book are the same scale, which really fairly shows
context.

Bad news: Historically population growth was not very fast, Europe
averaged 80% growth between 1300 and 1750 with a lot of technological
innovation. 40% in a century is remarkable for pre-industrial people.
There are exceptions. The British colonies in the Americas
for instance had enormous resources, and almost no new diseases to
cope with, so families with umpteen kids, majority surviving to
adulthood, were not remarkably uncommon.

4 children, even 4 surviing-past-the-first-year children is probably
way low. in 1991 (not a typo, in this decade) a survey of 500 Sudanse
women with an average age of 26 years and ten years of marriage was
conducted under the auspices of the Ahfad University College for
Women. The general fertility rate for Muslim Sudanese women at that
time was 6.0 children. Those women who exercised personal choice in
their husband (rather than traditional arranged marriages), and
especially the 13% who had salaried work outside home had on the
average 3.5 children ...
From ISLAMIC SOCIETY IN PRACTICE, by Carolyn Fluerhr-Lobban, c.
1994

===> In the abscence of plague, famine, invasion, monsters, etc. etc.

Pieter A de Jong
05-26-1999, 03:49 PM
To be very simple, I would ask if you have a population growth system
that satisfies you for a normal (50/50) sex ratio? If you have such a
system, consider that the limiting factor on population is of course the
number of women available, as a woman is either pregnant or not (in
other
words, one man can fertilize multiple women, but one woman cannot be
pregnant more than once at any given time). I would simply suggest the
growth in the population as the same as that of a normal population that
is 30% of size of the actual population.

Craig T. Dalrymple wrote:
>
> Greetings.
>
> I'm developing a new campaign setting based on Birthright (thus the cross
> post) and need some help from the mathematically superior.
>
> In this setting the initial population ratio of men to women is something
> like 85/15, or potentially worse. The people were not born here, they
> "arrived" here after a great battle, thus the disparity between the two
> sexes.
>
> Assuming that the chances for a child of a given sex are equal to that of
> any other sex, I.e. boys/girls come out at 50/50, how fast would the
> population grow over the course of one hundred years??
>
> Assume the following birthrate is the "average" for the world:
>
> for every woman's lifetime, she will deliver 4 children who make it through
> their first year of life.
>
> For attrition assume that in any given year 15% of the people die. (spread
> on the same 85/15 scale) [not including the small percentage of children who
> do not make the first year, they are not factored in at all]
>
> I am sure I can pencil this for days on end and come up with something, or
> just be arbitrary, but I am hoping to find real statistics that I can apply
> to the various groups who have "arrived" in this new land. Some will have
> higher rates of reproduction (like the goblins, etc), some lower (elves,
> dwarves). If I can get a realistic base for the "average" cuture/people, I
> can tweak it to fit each group from there.
>
> This world is small enough that I intend to have a population count to the
> nearest thousand for each nation.
>
> Thanks for your help!
>
> Either way, I'm still me:
>
> Craigd
>
> ************************************************** *************************
> > - --

Pieter A de Jong
Graduate Mechanical Engineering Student
University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada
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